Bush is spending his birthday with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, on a working visit. No doubt they have plenty to discuss, but with the softwood lumber deal more or less settled (the strong loonie and weak dollar probably lowered the danger of low-priced Canadian commodities flooding the US market), I hope they can discuss two of my fixations - Hugo Chavez and the Tamil Tigers.

Canada has been taking an increasingly prominent role in world affairs - most notably dispatching a strong force to Afghanistan that is doing serious fighting and paying a high price. Harper, recognizing the need for strength in today's complex world, has called for a major (and long overdue) Canadian military build-up. He has also, thankfully, strengthened Canada's domestic security (as evidenced by the round-up of the Toronto jihadi cell.) Hopefully Harper has the energy to lend a hand to a pair of other major international problems.

During the Cancun summit I wrote that Canada could play a valuable role in containing Hugo. Latin American countries are becoming concerned with his regional ambitions, including his interest in missiles and nukes, his purchase of Russian military hardware, and his formenting trouble in Bolivia which is leading to higher gas prices in Argentina and Brazil. But when the US tries to isolate Chavez, Hugo can play the anti-US card which always wins on the Latin American street. Canada could give the nervous Latin American politicians political cover - playing good cop to the US bad cop.

The Tamil Tigers are a big problem - but not, immediately, for the US and Canada. They are sparking another round of Sri Lanka's endless civil war. In and of itself this is bad enough, but it could have serious blowback for India. Canada, home to the world's largest expat Sri Lankan Tamil population, finally did the world a favor and banned the LTTE earlier this year. A long-term coordinated and sustained intelligence campaign against the LTTE, led by the US and Canada and including the EU, Australia and other south Asian countries, might reduce the LTTE's ability to continue to make war.

Some extra support on these crucial, but not front burner issues, would be a great birthday present for W.

Mexico is enjoying a replay of our Florida 2000 experience. Hopefully PAN will emerge victorious. A center-right government would serve Mexico well, a far-left one will not. This norteamericano only has the warmest wishes for our southern neighbor and sincerely hopes for Mexican prosperity. Lopez Obrador's intended anti-business policies will probably not deliver that much needed economic growth.

Still, even if Lopez Obrador wins, there are some positive signs. Mexico will probably get through this without a civil war (the first sign of being a grown-up democracy. Bernard Lewis writes that two peaceful exchanges of power is the real test - if PRD wins this is transfer number two.) Domestically Lopez Obrador will probably not have a broad support base, PAN and PRI combined are more than half the electorate, the PRD on its own is only a bit more than a third. Internationally, if Lopez Obrador plays Chavez he will pay a heavy price vis-a-vis the U.S. Oil rich Venezuela can get away with it - Mexico's economy is heavily tied to the U.S.

The other positive sign is that PAN was competitive at all. Most commentators described Vicente Fox, the outgoing PAN president as a huge disappointment who did not really take advantage of his mandate as Mexico's first non-PRI president in 70 years. The PAN candidate, Calderon was apparently a smoldering Latin policy wonk, who despite his charisma deficits was competitive. He is also young (43) so we could hear from him again. In Mexico the President is limited to a single six year term.

I just received my copy of Homeland Security: Protecting America's Targets, edited by West Point's James Forest and published by Praeger Security International. I wrote a chapter 19 in Volume 3: Critical Infrastructure, "The Terrorist Threat to the Internet."

Without going into too much detail, my research led to a healthy skepticism of the more dramatic "cyber-terror" threats (some things are simply not realistic, for others the bar for entry is very high), but a recognition that real vulnerabilities exist. Some aspects of cybercrime, as I have written elsewhere, could have interesting uses for terrorists.

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