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Thursday, October 27, 2005

My Day Job - Using the Semantic Web to research terrorism at UMCP 

If you have read my recent articles they describe me as a terrorism researcher at the Maryland Information and Network Dynamics Laboratory (MINDLAB) at the University of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer Studies. Within MINDLAB I work at the Semantic Web Research Group (MINDSWAP) which is at the cutting edge of Semantic Web research. Here is the best short description of the Semantic Web:
The Semantic Web provides a common framework that allows data to be shared and reused across application, enterprise, and community boundaries. It is a collaborative effort led by W3C with participation from a large number of researchers and industrial partners. It is based on the Resource Description Framework (RDF), which integrates a variety of applications using XML for syntax and URIs for naming.

"The Semantic Web is an extension of the current web in which information is given well-defined meaning, better enabling computers and people to work in cooperation." -- Tim Berners-Lee, James Hendler, Ora Lassila, The Semantic Web, Scientific American, May 2001

Since I am not a computer person, I usually expand on that description. Computers are very stupid. But they can do a few simple operations very, very quickly. It takes very smart people (such as my colleagues at the MINDLAB) enormous amounts of effort to get computers to do the simplest things. Google is an incredible tool - a technological marvel. But what it really does is match characters very fast. Anyone who has ever done a search knows that these searches frequently result in irrelevant responses because the computer has no grasp of context - it is just matching the characters provided.

The idea of the Semantic Web is to encode information so that it has some context to the computer. That is to create metadata so that, for example, certain entities can be understood as people or cars or what have you and that these entities have consistent properties. This is where I come in. I am building a terrorism ontology, that is a means of classifying the various sorts of concepts needed understand data about terrorism. This ranges from information about, for example, the history of a vehicle used in an attack to the different ways in which terrorist operatives meet.

If these things can be done successfully, then it is easier to migrate and sort data. One aspect of this is that it can allow different databases to communicate. Another is that it can allow an analyst to structure the data to suit his or her needs for a particular project. Then, that mini-database can be used and reconfigured by future users.

In short, as a writer I doodle all sorts of diagrams and notes about what I am going to write before I sit down at the keyboard. My hope is to create an online sort of doodle space so that my notes can be shared - and reconfigured - across time and space by other researchers.

Enough talk - I have an experimental Semantic website. On the homepage are links to a pair of in-depth papers I have co-authored elaborating these concepts. The site is a Semantic Web database of terrorism. The data is not exceptional, but the backend - that is the ways in which the site can manage and migrate the data is. One outgrowth of this is that we can generate visualizations of social networks. Visit the page of almost any listed individual and the site automatically graphs their network of personal connections.

Last - here is a short description of my work in this entry of the Computer Research Policy Blog about a demo the lab did on Capitol Hill in June.

Aaron Mannes on Iran in Gaza in the Washington Times 

My latest - on my perennial issue of Iranian infiltration into the Palestinian terrorist groups - on the Commentary pages of The Washington Times.

Winner on Gaza sidelines

By Aaron Mannes

October 27, 2005

While the headlines focus on the power struggle between Hamas and Fatah for control of Gaza, the real winner is Iran, which, with its proxy Hezbollah, has been infiltrating all of the Palestinian terrorist groups for over a decade. The general disorder will leave Iran with a free hand to use Gaza as a platform for terror, not just against Israel, but worldwide. Along with Tehran's quest for nuclear weapons and subversion in Iraq, the Iranian effort to subsume the Palestinian terrorist groups is a central component of Iran's bid to become the dominant Middle Eastern power.

Iranian influence extends deeply into every Palestinian faction, guaranteeing Tehran's sway whatever power structure emerges in Gaza. Palestinian Islamic Jihad is entirely dependent on Iranian funding and has been Iran's proxy in the West Bank and Gaza for nearly a decade. Fatah and Hamas, the leading Palestinian factions, are also being taken over by Iran. Working with Hezbollah, Iran has generously supported every Palestinian faction, providing cash, training equipment, medical treatment, and even how-to bomb making videos. Hezbollah provided assistance in launching many of the al-Aqsa Intifada's bloodiest attacks, including the March 2002 Passover Massacre. This generosity, combined with the vacuum created by Israel's strategy of eliminating terrorist leaders, has enabled Hezbollah to recruit Palestinians and establish their own network in the West Bank, Gaza and among Israeli Arabs. Israeli intelligence reports that Hezbollah now directs most Palestinian terror operations.

Some leaders from both Hamas and Fatah have complained about Hezbollah's infiltration. Weeks before he died, Yasser Arafat complained, "[Iranian Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei is working against us. He is giving money to all these fanatical groups. Khamenei is a troublemaker."

But Hezbollah and Iran are also recruiting Hamas and Fatah leaders. Hamas' Gaza leaders had tried to maintain the organization's independence. But with Israel's spring 2004 assassination of Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin, control of Hamas passed to the Damascus-based leadership who are aligned with Iran and Syria. They quickly invited Hezbollah to play a more active role in the al-Aqsa Intifada.

A Fatah victory over Hamas for control of Gaza will not contain Iranian influence. Farouq Qaddumi, Arafat's successor as Fatah leader, is relocating to Gaza to better compete with Mahmoud Abbas for control of Fatah and the Palestinian Authority (PA). Mr. Qaddumi, who has close links to Iran and Syria and opposed the peace process, has founded his own militia and has actively aided Hezbollah infiltration of the PA and Fatah. Many of the thousands of Lebanon-based Fatah members relocating to Gaza are also linked to Hezbollah and Iran. Fatah's leader in Lebanon, Munir Maqdah, head of the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp, helped Hezbollah funnel money to West Bank terror cells.

Israel will continue to be the primary target of Gaza's terrorists. Israeli officials now view Gaza as a secure rear echelon for emboldened West Bank terrorism. But there are regional and international implications beyond Iran's ability to strike Israel and disrupt Palestinian-Israeli negotiations.

Within the Middle East, Persian and Shia Iran's efforts to export its Islamist revolution were hampered by its ethnic and sectarian isolation from the Sunni Arab mainstream. While Hezbollah has been an effective Arab proxy, it was still isolated from the Sunni mainstream by its Shi'ism. The Palestinians of Gaza are Arab Sunni Muslims and Hamas, which grew from the Muslim Brotherhood, may prove a particularly effective intermediary to the broader Arab world. Gaza based-radicalism threatens both Egypt, which has its own violent Islamist movements, and Jordan, where Hamas is closely aligned with the Islamic Action Front, Jordan's leading opposition party.

The Palestinian terrorist groups will augment Hezbollah's international reach. Hamas has a global logistics network that could support operations. Both Hamas and Fatah have international reputations that could attract recruits for terror attacks around the globe. The attack on Mike's Place by two British citizens of Pakistani descent who were recruited in Britain by Hamas could be a harbinger of this trend.

From Beirut to Buenos Aires and throughout Europe and the Middle East, Iran has used terrorism to achieve its ends. Influence over the Palestinian terrorist networks extends Iran's ability to intimidate and murder its enemies and is an integral part of Tehran's efforts to dominate the Middle East.

Aaron Mannes, author of the TerrorBlog (www.profilesinterror.com) and "Profiles in Terror: The Guide to Middle East Terrorist Organizations" (Rowman & Littlefield-JINSA Press), researches terrorism at the Maryland Information and Network Dynamics Laboratory (profilesinterror.mindswap.org) at the University of Maryland. Opinions expressed here are his own.

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

IED Experts - Hezbollah's Hand in Iraq? 

This morning The Washington Post reported on how improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have become the leading killer of U.S. personnel in Iraq. The article described in some detail how despite continually developing new tactics and technologies to address this problem the IEDs continue to grow in deadly effectiveness.

Reading the article I held my breath for any mention of Lebanon's Hezbollah. There was a brief reference to Iran as the source of high quality explosives for the devices - but that was it.

Hezbollah made extensive use of IEDs to ambush Israeli tanks and patrols in south Lebanon. They then shared this expertise with the Palestinians. In Targeting Terror the Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Matt Levitt wrote:

For example a Hizbullah agent infiltrated Palestinian territory with forged papers in order to advise a joint Fatah-Hamas Saladin Brigades squad on the execution of the February 14, 2002, ambush of an Israeli tank. This attack - a textbook example of Hizbullah operations strategy combining a diversionary attack with a high-grade roadside bomb targeting respondents - exceeded the results of Hizbullah's own operations in southern Lebanon in tha tit destroyed one of Israel's best-armored tanks.... The significance of Hizbullah's logistical and operational assistance to Hamas cannot be overstated.

There have been other such shared ventures. Two years ago I speculated whether the October 15, 2003 ambush by IED of U.S. diplomatic personnel driving in Gaza was a Hezbollah operation.

So Hezbollah knows IEDs - but they also know Iraq - well.

Iranian activity in Iraq is under-reported but not unknown. Here are two good articles describing them from Time and Britain's Daily Telegraph. Suffice to say, Iran is believed to have flooded Iraq with military intelligence officers (many accompanying Iranian pilgrams visiting Najaf and Karbala.) Flush with oil wealth, the Iranian regime has reportedly spent tens of millions of dollars a month buying friends and influence in Iraq. Al-Sadr's militia was a bare tip of the iceberg.

Where Iran goes, Hezbollah goes. Hezbollah has opened offices in Basra and has its own links to Iraq. Many of Hezbollah's mullahs studied in Najaf and have links to the Iraqi Shia.

It should not be forgotten that Hezbollah is the world's most effective terrorist organization. In the early 1980s Hezbollah attacks forced a U.S. led multi-national peacekeeping force out of Lebanon. They then took Westerners hostage in Lebanon precipitating political crises in the U.S. and France. Hezbollah terror attacks abroad have impacted the domestic politics of France, Argentina and others. In 2000, when Israel withdrew from Lebanon, Hezbollah claimed it as their victory.

They are preparing for a replay in Iraq. I certainly hope The Washington Post is preparing a follow-up story.



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