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Friday, December 24, 2004

Shades of Green: Eco-Terror and Radical Islam 

One of my themes as an analyst is how groups with very, very different ideologies regularly make common cause. Secular and religious movements, Sunni and Shia etc.

Still, I would not readily predict a link-up between the Animal Liberation Front or the Environmental Liberation Front and al-Qaeda. While there are some similarities - ALF & ELF are the original web-based terrorists, with minimal centralized structure and an emphasis on individual action - they move in very different circles.

But, in this month's Commentary Joshua Kurlantzick's The Left and the Islamists discusses the growing links between the far-left and radical Islam. Far-left lawyers like Lynne Stewart and Ramsey Clark (founder of ANSWER) have rushed to defend leaders of radical Islamist movements. In England Marxists have linked up with the Muslim Brotherhood. Hezbollah hosted a conference of the far-left in Beirut. Suffice to say, there is some ideological overlap. Islamist leaders have long adopted the rhetoric of Thirld Worldism and there are certain ideological affinities. But, they have a rather profound gulf on - for example - women's rights.

Still, if the Marxist far-left can link-up with radical Islam for a red-green alliance, why not the eco-far left for a green-green alliance? I will not state that there is any evidence of such a link - only that the possibility should not be discounted.

Thursday, December 23, 2004

Aaron Mannes & Nir Boms on Democracy in Egypt 

When it rains, it pours.

Globes, an Israeli business journal published Mubarak's Double Game an article I co-authored with my friend Nir Boms, Vice President of the Center for Freedom in the Middle East.

The article discusses how leading Arab human rights activist Saad al-Din Ibrahim's interest in running for President of Egypt is a unique opportunity to advance the culture of democracy in Egypt and throughout the Middle East.

Appearing on Dennis Miller: My 15 Minutes of Fame 

Last Tuesday my appearance on "Dennis Miller" was taped. It aired Wednesday night and was rebroadcast on Sunday. It was a lot of fun.

I was on the Varsity Panel with former UN Amb. Nancy Soderberg and Ken Pollack of Brookings. They were both former NSC staffers and suffice to say I was the little fish in that pond. The Panel had two seven minute segments, the first on al-Qaeda and the second on Iran. I spoke for maybe two minutes, which all things considered was pretty good. I managed to be coherent, and my feedback has been positive. My mom thought Miller could have talked less and asked me more questions...

When asked if I thought capturing Bin Laden would be much of a blow to al-Qaeda I stated that I did not think he was running al-Qaeda anymore and was really a media figure.

On Iran, I got in a good line. I said that Iran is the world's leading sponsor of terrorism - "They hit for power and average" because their terrorism doesn't just kill people, it gets results. I then described how their success driving the U.S. from Lebanon established the American reputation for weakness in the region and that Iran would exploit any agreement to continue to sponsor terror.

Eventually I'll either type up the transcript or figure out how to post the clip.

Even though my interactions with Dennis Miller were only moments longer than my appearance on screen it was a thrill. In my younger days I was a comedian and a big fan. In person he is incredibly funny. He called my book the "racing form" of terrorism and told us a first-rate funny bit.

Needless to say, I left the funny to him. My own material is a bit rusty.

While there are many things I wish I had said, my biggest regret was that the show was not taped on a Thursday, because then I could have met Mowgli.



Here is a fun post from a Varsity Panelist who did get to meet Mowgli.

Aaron Mannes in NRO on Hugo Chavez 

National Review Online recently ran my article Hugo's Ambitions on Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez. Chavez combines internal repression, regional belligerence, and international troublemaking. This article was spurred by a raid on a Jewish day school in Caracas by Venezuelan security forces. Many Venezuelans were shocked and recognized that civil society itself was close to being destroyed.

I also wrote the article to plug an excellent blog on Venezuelan affairs Venezuela New and Views. The blog was up for Best Latino/South America/Caribbean Blog. My article did not come out in time to help, but the blog won on its own merits.

I also received some unfriendly correspondence. An email asked me why I dismissed Chavez's pretext for the raid - that the Mossad may have been behind a carbombing assassination of a government prosecutor in Caracas. After all, my correspondent wrote, Israel and the U.S. are the leading sponsors of terror in the world.

Without going into long discussions about terrorism and explanations for Israel's attempts at self-defense I will note two things.

First, the Mossad has its hands full going after Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists and is not looking to take on Latin American dictators - no matter how odious.

Two, more importantly, the Mossad are not morons. Operating out of a Jewish day school would be very bad tradecraft. There are too many people coming and going which increases the likelihood of the inadvertant discovery of covert activity.

Finally - I had to disappoint my Venezuelan friends when I told them that the likelihood of the Mossad getting involved and removing Chavez was very small. They were hoping in earnest.


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