On Sunday, Hamas leader Izz al-Din al-Sheikh was killed when his car exploded on ignition in Damascus. He was suspected of coordinating the August 31 twin suicide bombings on Israeli buses in Beersheva that killed 16. While Israel has not taken credit, they are obviously suspected. They have assassinated terrorists in other countries before.

Here is where it gets interesting. Israel has demonstrated its ability to operate in Syrian airspace with impunity. It has struck carefully selected targets within Syria and it has conducted flyovers of the Syrian President's Palace in Latakia. But this operation was on the ground and in the heart of Damascus. That is a strong wake-up call to the Syrians about Israel's reach.

The London-based Arabic daily al-Hayat reports that Israel had been receiving help from an unnamed Arab intelligence agency. This set off a round of speculation about which Arab country would lend a hand.

One theory, published in Maariv is that Egypt helped as part of an audacious plan to wean split Syria from Iran. The Egyptians would then support the Syrians in dealing with the US on Lebanon and with Israel on the Golan. By breaking the Syria-Iran alliance, Iran would be left isolated and easier to handle. Egypt's reward for this good work would be American support for Gamal Mubarak's succession of his father as Egypt's President.

A neat theory, but a bit convoluted and audacious is not the first word for Hosni Mubarak.

Another theory is Syria itself helped off Khalil. Syria is under US pressure on a range of issues and is trying to get the pressure off. The confused Syrian reaction lent some credence to this theory. It took them nine hours to issue a condemnation - this is Syria, condemning Israel is practically part of the weather report.

Syria has been making some friendly gestures toward the US, most notably promising to patrol its border with Iraq better, sending Iraqi Baathists and terrorists to Iran and redeploying forces in Lebanon. (See below on Syria’s charm offensive.) There can be little question that the Syrian regime is devious beyond compare, but to help kill a Hamas activist seems a stretch. Syria does have a history of pushing terrorist groups out of Syria proper and into Lebanon. They did with Abu Nidal back in the 1980s.

My own guess is Jordan. The Jordanians and the Israelis have been cooperating for a long time. Hamas is a threat to Jordan. It is closely aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood and particularly its political arm the Islamic Action Front. Syria views Jordan as part of Syria and Hamas is one tool Syria can use against Jordan. Jordan recently clamped down on the Muslim Brotherhood, arresting about 30 clerics for incitement. Squeezed between nasty neighbors, Jordan is vulnerable, Syria is covetous, and Hamas is a threat. Jordan has turned to Israel before when it was in a crisis and could have done so again.

It is all speculation, but my theory is no weaker than the others.

The other question is about how Hamas will react. The Jerusalem Post reports that initially Hamas threatened to target Israelis around the world, but the political leadership then issued a statement that their operations would continue to focus on “occupied Palestine.”

Of course, last year Jamal Akkal was arrested in Gaza, while preparing to travel back to Canada and into the US to attack synagogues or Israeli institutions. Just in August, Ismael Selim Elbarase, an indicted co-conspirator of Hamas leader Abu Marzuq, was arrested while videotaping the Chesapeake Bay Bridge (a nice bridge and all but not exactly a tourist attraction.) Also, Hamas has opened offices in Iraq and joined in Muslim Brotherhood calls for more violence against the U.S. in Iraq. So this is really old news. Hamas has longed been linked to other terrorist groups with international reach and eliminating an operative is really a favor to the US. So is giving the Syrian regime a good scare.

Syria is trying to persuade the world that it is not completely evil. It has, under US pressure and after a UN Security Council Resolution, redeployed troops in Lebanon. It is making nice noises about helping the US track down WMD and close the Syrian-Iraqi border to Jihadists. The Syrian government has told the Damascus-based terrorists to keep it down for now.

None of this should be taken too seriously. Damascus remains a vicious oppresive regime that relies on force and terror to maintain control and is ideologically committed to Israel's destruction. Eyal Zisser, one of the most perceptive Syria analysts wrote a fine piece on Syria's game in Lebanon. Syria needs to continue its control of Lebanon both ideologically and economically. Ideologically, because leaving would be the end of the Syrian Baathist vision of Greater Syria which includes Israel, Jordan, and a province of Turkey. Economically, pillaging Lebanon keeps the creaky Syrian state-controlled economy afloat.

This is all business as usual in Middle East diplomacy - what puzzles me is why The Washington Post is contributing to Syria's charm offensive. On Saturday (9/25) the Post ran a lengthy article about how the Baath Party is slowly relinquishing power and President Assad is edging aside the old ideologues so that a new pragmatic generation could take power. This has been the talk since Bashar came to power after his father's death in 2000. Meanwhile Syria has drawn closer to Iran, continued to support terrorism, and its rhetoric has not moderated a bit. There was a brief flowering of reform movements in 2000-2001, but this was just a ploy so that the secret police could identify the organizers and arrest them.

The next day the Post ran an article that covered more than a half a page about gentrification in the old city of Damascus. So Syrian elites have decided they want to live downtown - who cares? The article portrays a hip, wealthy urban class familiar in the United States. The difference is that in Syria, where the economy is state controlled and per capita income is less than $3,300, anyone with money is tied into the thuggish Baathist regime.

(Side note: Someone very interested in Syrian urban planning was 9/11 lead hijacker Mohammed Atta who wrote his Master's thesis on Aleppo's urban planning.)

Interesting that as Syria is launching its charm offensive, two such fluffy stories appear and together take up over a page of The Washington Post's valuable journalistic real estate.