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Tuesday, August 03, 2004

Libya, 9/11, and the murder of Silvan Becker 

I did not discuss it in my review of the 9/11 Commission Report, but I think the March 10, 1994 murder of Silvan Becker and his wife in Surt, Libya should have been mentioned. Becker was German intelligence's top Arabist and his murder hampered Germany's ability to monitor Islamist activity. 9/11 was planned, primarily, in Hamburg.

An interesting note, Libya issued the very first international arrest warrant for bin Laden - and it was for Becker's murder. Libya held al-Islamiya al-Muqatila (better known as the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group) responsible for the murder. The group also tried to assassinate Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi and carried out intermittent attacks against the regime. They may have received assistance, on occasion, from Western intelligence agencies.

But the warrant was not issued until 1998, four years after the murder.

The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group has a less than stellar track record - carrying out very few successful attacks. At the same time, Gaddafi is very canny. Although he rebuilt his relationship with the US by closing up his nuclear weapons program - he is now accused of plotting to assassinate Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. His plot included linking up with al-Qaeda affiliated Saudi dissidents in London.

In short, we never know exactly what Gaddafi is up to - but it is probably bad.

Considering that Becker was an experienced intelligence agent and the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group was not terribly effective, it is reasonable to consider the possibility that Libyan intelligence murdered Becker. After all, Becker was playing a lead role in the investigation of the Lockerbie bombing - for which Libya was ultimately held responsible and which also may have been planned, at least in part, by terror cells based in Germany.

This is all speculation, of course, but a mention of Becker's untimely demise - at least in a footnote - would have been worthwhile.

Reviewing the 9/11 Commission Report 

National Review Online was kind enough to run my review of the 9/11 Commission's report.

Overall an impressive job, and a boon to others analyzing terrorist activity. But, I did point out a few things the report might have mentioned - particularly Imad Mughniyah, Hezbollah's top killer, who met with bin Laden in Sudan in the early 1990s. Hezbollah/Iranian training helped turn al-Qaeda into a deadly and effective organization. Another important fact about Mughniyah is that he learned his craft initially as a member of Arafat's elite personal bodyguard, Force 17. Talk about a terrorism "Dream Team."

And I could not write it without asking how the United States was so blind to the vast hatred for the United States and the West that convulses the region. Had this been properly assessed, instead of explained away, our entire security posture towards the region might have been different.

Still, despite 9/11, too many are ready to excuse this hatred as merely the result of our policies.

Monday, August 02, 2004

Saddam's Olympians 

Baghdad newspaper al-Mashreq reports that officials of the Iraqi Olympic Committee discovered a dungeon under the rafters of a major stadium used by Saddam's son Uday to torture Iraqi athletes. Uday was the head of Iraq's Olympic Committee.

I'll be rooting for these guys in Athens! They've already won.

Also al-Hayat the very prominent London-based Arabic daily reports after only one year of public internet access, Iraqis are becoming a major presence in Arabic chatrooms - to the point that other Arabs are learning the Iraqi dialect.

Both stories courtesy of the MEMRI Ticker Service.

Turkey & Iran Talk Terror 

In late July Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan visited Iran and complained that the US is hypocritical in its war on terror. He found a sympathetic Iranian ear and the two countries are expanding their security cooperation.

At issue are two terrorist groups based in Iraq, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) and the MEK (Mujahedin e-Khalk). The PKK, which seeks an independent Kurdish state, fought a bloody war against Turkey throughout the 1990s. Turkey nearly went to war with Syria over Damascus' support of the PKK. Iran has also supported the PKK - although, like Syria, Iran cracks down harshly on its own Kurdish dissidents. In the wake of the 1991 Gulf War, northern Iraq became a convenient base. The PKK went into decline in early 1999 when Turkey captured its founder Abdulah Ocalan. The PKK announced a ceasefire in 2000 but in May 2004 the PKK announced that it was ending the truce.

There are about 5,000 PKK fighters based at camps in northern Iraq and the failure of the US to disarm them is a major irritating factor in US-Turkish relations.

The MEK is a strange Muslim-leftist group that rivaled the Islamists for control in the early days of the revolution. They were maintained by Iraq under Saddam. Now they have been disarmed and are being watched by US forces. Iran's decision to not handover al-Qaeda members (including top leaders) now in Iran is often explained as a response to the American choice not to hand the MEK over to Iran.

All things are not equal here. Turkey is a US ally and a secular democracy and the PKK is not remotely pro-American. Iran is an enemy and while the MEK is not exactly a friendly group they have provided the US with intelligence. Meanwhile warmer Iranian-Turkish relations are not good for the United States - and is Iran's top priority. The United States has its hands full in Iraq, but helping the Turks with the PKK would pay off - demonstrating awareness of Turkish concerns and heading off the Iranian-Turkish rapprochement.


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