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Tuesday, July 20, 2004

Sandy Berger and Millennial Terror 

Former National Security Advisor Sandy Berger and his counter-terror efforts are in the news because of Berger removed classified documents from a national archive regarding his counter-terror policies. I have no specific knowledge of or opinion regarding what Berger did.

However, I was just watching CNN where his former Clinton Administration colleague David Gergen praised Berger's hard work on counter-terror. He stated that (I paraphrase) there was increased chatter in late 1999 and Berger's diligence prevented devestating terrorist attacks including a plot against LAX.

This is false. A plot to bomb the Radisson Hotel in Amman, Jordan and then gun down Christian and Jewish pilgrims and tourists at holy sites in Jordan on New Year's Eve 1999 was broken up by Jordanian security. Ahmed Ressam, who was plotting to bomb LAX was arrested on the US-Canadian border. Diana Dean, the Customs Inspector who called for a search of Ressam's car suspected he was transporting drugs. Ressam had previously passed through a US Immigration checkpoint. Law enforcement officials were surprised when the mysterious powders in Ressam's trunk turned out to be explosives.

(For more on Ressam, The Seattle Times did a terrific 18 part series entitled "The Terrorist Within."

No doubt Berger worked very hard on this issue, but it did not make any difference. The fact is that the US lucked out in December 1999.

"The Grid" - First Impressions 

Even hardworking terrorism analysts need to take a break - and what better way to do it than kicking back and watching a mini-series about terrorism.

"The Grid," an original TNT-BBC series about a joint US-British effort to track down an international terrorist cell isn't bad. The dialogue is a bit trite. The plot features rivalries between the US and British agents and also between agencies within both countries and this comes off a mite heavy-handed. That being said - I have no personal experience at this so maybe it is dead on, the show's PR touts in put from former officials and terrorism experts (although I wasn't called). But it does feels heavy handed.

The CIA counter-terror chief is portrayed as solely interested in protecting the agency's turf. The FBI official is a model of selfless dedication who lost his best friend on 9/11. The Brits are invariably wiser and more worldly than the Americans. This does not exactly ring true. The FBI's record on counter-terror, we now know, is less than terrific. The Brits are also not exactly superstars. Al-Qaeda's European operations were headquartered in London (at the Finsbury Park and Baker St. mosques) throughout the 1990s and until recently. Believe it or not, for years the French (who took stern measures against terrorism in the early 1990s) were warning the Brits about radical Islamist activity in Britain.

There is a CIA analyst who is the obligatory "good Muslim" who is conflicted - hating terrorists but also objecting to Western generalizations about Islam.

Other events don't ring true. A terrorist is described as "fringe al-Qaeda but had bin Laden's ear." Huh?

As a mission was being executed, one recruit who tried to back out was murdered. In fact, plenty of al-Qaeda recruits backed out. There are reports (such as the Lackawanna Six) of trainees at Jihadist camps who changed their minds and simply went home. A mission would not bring together a bunch of people who don't know each other. Usually missions were carried out by small teams of close friends. The internal clique pressures would press them forward together or help them back out together.

That being said, many details rang true. The utility of "an American brother" is touted because he can travel freely around the world on a US passport. When British police raided a suspect's apartment the people in the hallways were wearing hijabs - giving a small sense of the dense predominantly Muslim neighborhoods in London where terrorists have made a home. A young man who wants to join the Jihad sits around the house watching bin Laden videos. Most importantly the ubiquitous technology everywhere - computers, scanners to send pictures of targets around the world, pocket PCs - even in places like Yemen and Nigeria give some sense as to how the technological revolution has served terrorism.

Finally, the most tellingly accurate note: nobody slept. Whenever one terrorist hunter called another - wherever they were (from Yemen to Washington) - everybody was always awake and ready to take the call.

Iran, Hezbollah, and WMDs 

Iran may transfer WMD to Hezbollah according to the head of Israel's Military Intelligence's research department. A timely warning. The report focuses on chemical weapons and the possibility that these weapons could be shared with Palestinian terror groups, but as Iran speeds towards nuclear capability and its deep links with al-Qaeda this should be recognized as a global strategic threat.

Also, the term "give" somehow understates the Iranian-Hezbollah relationship. On international terror operations, such as the AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires, Hezbollah and Iran's diplomatic/intelligence apparatus cooperate hand in hand. Saying Iran might give something to Hezbollah is like transfering an item from one's left hand to the one's right.


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