Following are a pair of articles I've written on Hamas after Yassin and Rantisi.

For an in-depth look at this issue, see Dangerous Liaisons: Hamas after the Assassination of Yassin in the Middle East Intelligence Bulletin (MEIB), a terrific online publication on Middle East affairs with a focus on Syria and Lebanon.

For a briefer look at the question see the following oped, which I wrote for the Jerusalem Post after Yassin's assassination (the link has expired).

If you don't have time for either, the long and short of it is this: as Hamas loses its top leadership in Gaza, the Damascus based leadership becomes more prominent in running the organization. The Damascus leaders are tight with Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah - and Hamas has important assets to offer this trio, besides resources to attack Israel. Hamas has overseas operatives, a good "brand name" for recruiting terrorists worldwide, and links to Sunni Islamist groups throughout the Middle East. This is more than a problem for Israel, it is a problem for the US, because Hezbollah and its patrons want to force the US out of the region and become the dominant powers.

Caveat - I definitely do not say that Yassin and Rantisi should have been spared, only that there is a looming trend that needs to be addressed.


Iran binds Hizbullah to Hamas
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AARON MANNES Mar. 29, 2004 - The Jerusalem Post
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With the assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, history may repeat itself.

On October 26, 1995 in Malta, Israeli agents assassinated Fathi Shkaki, the secretary-general of Palestinian Islamic Jihad. He was replaced by Ramadan Abdallah Shallah, who was not as effective a leader.

As Islamic Jihad began to decline, Iran became its primary funder, and Islamic Jihad in turn became Iran's proxy in the West Bank and Gaza.

With Sheikh Yassin, Hamas's founder dead, Iran may again attempt to move into a power vacuum in order to extend the reach of its terror network both against Israel and worldwide.

The relationship between Hamas and Hizbullah, Iran's leading terrorist proxy, dates back to the early 1990s. After being released from Israeli prison in 1997, Yassin visited Iran and secured a multimillion dollar annual Iranian contribution to Hamas. In the Aksa Intifada, Hizbullah has been generous in sharing its expertise, smuggling plans, equipment, and operatives with the Palestinian territories.

Hizbullah has helped Hamas build rockets based on Katyushas and bombs – including the device used in the March 27, 2002 Passover Massacre. Hamas has also carried out ambushes, such as a February 2002 attack that destroyed an Israeli tank, based on tactics Hizbullah honed in its long fight against Israel in Lebanon.

In the wake of Yassin's assassination, Hizbullah shelled northern Israel, further demonstrating the expanding ties between the two organizations.

Within Hamas, power will pass to the Damascus-based political leadership under Khaled Mashaal, which is not as highly regarded as Yassin and which already cooperates closely with Hizbullah and Iran. As Hamas's networks are damaged by Israeli crackdowns, the Hamas leadership will rely more frequently on Hizbullah's assistance in carrying out operations and transferring funds.

HAMAS HAS a vast social welfare network including schools and clinics in the Palestinian territories providing material support for its terrorist activities, as well as propaganda and fundraising arms worldwide. This independent base of support makes a complete Iranian takeover of Hamas unlikely. But it also makes the possibility of a deeper Hamas-Hizbullah-Iran alliance a much more potent threat.

For Israel, this alliance is a matter of grave concern.

Hizbullah has made inroads in the West Bank and Gaza, both among the Palestinian terrorist organizations and in establishing independent terrorist cells and a social welfare network. In addition to the Islamic Jihad, Hizbullah's relations with the various factions associated with Yasser Arafat are well established.

Hizbullah's top terrorist, Imad Mughniyah, who masterminded the bombing of the US Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983 and the Karine A arms shipment to the Palestinian Authority in December 2001, was a member of Force 17, Yasser Arafat's elite bodyguard, in the early 1980s.

Ma'ariv reports that Hizbullah and Iran currently finance most Aksa Martyrs Brigade operations. With Hamas folded into this alliance, Israel could face a well-coordinated threat on three fronts directed from Iran.
But the greater repercussions could be international. Ideologically, Hamas grew from the Muslim Brotherhood, the original Islamic extremist organization, which viewed the United States as Islam's central enemy.

In the past, Hamas refrained from launching attacks outside Israel. But the December 2003 arrest of Jamal Akkal, a Canadian citizen of Palestinian descent who confessed that he had been trained by Hamas to attack Israeli targets in Canada, indicates that this policy is changing.

Hizbullah has an extensive international network that has, in close coordination with the Iranian government, launched terror attacks throughout Europe and the Middle East, and in Latin American and Asia.
Hamas brings important assets to Hizbullah's network. Gaza and the West Bank could prove fertile ground in recruiting operatives for attacks elsewhere in the world. Hamas is a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and could help cement (Shi'ite) Hizbullah's ties with (Sunni) Islamist groups around the world.

Hamas also has an international network of supporters who have raised tens of millions annually in North America, Britain, Europe, and Latin America. These networks could also provide logistical support for terror attacks. Already Hamas and Hizbullah have reportedly opened offices in Iraq, where they are infiltrating their supporters and recruiting Iraqis.

None of this is to argue that Israel should not have targeted Yassin, whose long, murderous career needed to be brought to a close. Hamas will be less effective without him.
But his absence creates a vacuum, and the possibility that Iran could fill that vacuum, expanding its already formidable international terror network, is real and frightening.

The writer is the author of the TerrorBlog (www.profilesinterror.com) and the book Profiles in Terror, forthcoming in May 2004, Rowman & Littlefield-JINSA Press.

The instinctive first response to yesterday's strange attacks on an abandoned UN building in Damascus is that it was a set-up by the Syrian regime. This suspicion was reinforced by this report from the Israeli daily Ha'aretz which cites Dr. Fawzi al-Shueibi, head of the Institute for Strategic Studies in Damascus and a confident of Syrian President Bashar Assad. In an interview with Al-Jazeera, according to the article, "Al-Shueibi said they were planning a terrorist attack but that they had no specific target."

A random, poorly planned attack on an empty building - sounds just like al-Qaeda doesn't it?

Certainly, al-Qaeda has some cause to attack Syria which has brutally oppressed the Muslim Brotherhood - most notably at Hama where at least 10,000 people were killed in 1982 by the Syrian military. But according to many reports Syria is at least allowing, if not actively supporting, the transfer of money and personnel to support jihadist activity in Iraq. The people and funds for the recent attempted mega-attack in Jordan passed through Syria. Wouldn't annoying the Syrian regime be a bit counter-productive for al-Qaeda when the real fight is in Iraq?

It would be in Syria's interest to portray itself as a victim of terrorism. It might reduce some of the scrutiny of Syria's own activity supporting terror. Then Syria could engage in its best diplomatic tactic - obfuscate, obfuscate, obfuscate.

Logically, it should not matter. So Syria is a victim of terror. That does not change the fact that they are one of the lead sponsors of terror. When Syria completely rolls up Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and all of the Fronts for the Liberation of Palestine (there are at least 4) then they can apply for sympathy and aid in fighting terror. Not before.

On April 14, the day of the joint Sharon-Bush press conference, I was the guest on a Voice of America radio talk show, Talk to America.

The show has just been posted on the VOA website, to listen click here.

I discussed the implications of Israel's plan to withdraw from Gaza on Hamas and the other Palestinian terrorist groups and how terrorism operates in general. Voice of America is a terrific organization, and it was a pleasure to participate.

Funny thing about radio - everyone sounds great, not just the on-air personalities, but also the technicians, the receptionist, even the production aides who make coffee. They were very nice and told me I had a great voice for radio. I'll take their word on that, but I am certain I have the looks for it.