The two big stories this morning are the large-scale fighting on the Pakistani-Afghani border and the shooting of Taiwan's President and Vice President.

Reportedly Pakistani forces have surrounded a major al-Qaeda fortification which is believed to hold bin Laden's number two Ayman al-Zawahiri. First, rumors out of Pakistan are extremely unreliable. Between its export of nuclear technology, support for Islamist terror - particularly in Kashmir, corruption, and inability to control much of its own territory Pakistan is effectively a rogue state. It is entirely possible that Pakistan, which lacks any other leverage over the United States, conducted operations in order to appease the United States during Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit and is waiting until American attention turns elsewhere.

If Zawahiri is captured it would be a blow, but not a fatal one to al-Qaeda. Undoubtedly Zawahiri would possess valuable intelligence, but he is not considered the charismatic force behind al-Qaeda. More importantly, al-Qaeda has become a diffuse conglomerate of networks and the elimination of any member, no matter how important, will not cripple it. Also, in the mindset of the Islamists, capture and death are expected - Zawahiri and eventually bin Laden, will be honored for having evaded the United States for so long.

Zawahiri's exact role in al-Qaeda is not clear. He is usually described as bin Laden's number two and as the top strategist who helped define al-Qaeda's role as an international operation targeting the United States. The Middle East Media Research Institute produced a fine profile of Zawahiri.

Zawahiri on his own was not a terribly successful terrorist. Under his leadership al-Jihad had limited success against Egypt and a fundraising trip by Zawahiri to the United States was unsuccessful. But, it is mistakes which hold the greatest lessons, and this experience (he organized his first Islamist cell as a high-school student in the 1960s) may have been crucial to helping bin Laden build such an effective network.

The President and Vice President of Taiwan Chen Shui-bian and Annette Lu were both shot while campaigning together for re-election and for a referendum calling for Taiwan to acquire advanced missile defense systems if China refuses to withdraw missiles targeted at Taiwan. China, of course, views Taiwan as a renegade province and would find these moves extremely provocative. (China is also carrying out large scale naval exercises with France, a first for the two countries and a major development - especially considering the current state of Chinese-Taiwanese and Franco-American relations.)

China has threatened Taiwan with missiles at crucial junctures before - even conducting missile tests very close to the island - and it is not unreasonable to suspect a Chinese hand in the shooting. There is, at this point, no evidence whatsoever to suggest this - only suspicion. But, if this was a foreign directed assassination attempt, coming so soon after the Madrid bombings, it is a reminder that of all of the vulnerabilities to terrorism inherent in free, open-societies - elections, the very essence of democracy, may be the most sensitive node.

I have had a pair of articles published in National Review Online:

"El Once de Marzo" on the bombings in Madrid and

"A Life of Terror" on the unlamented death of Abu Abbas, the mastermind of the 1985 Achille Lauro hijacking.

There have been numerous developments in the Madrid bombing investigation and the political fallout. While initially there was some debate over whether it was al-Qaeda or ETA, evidence is increasing that it was an al-Qaeda operation. My article on 3/11 in NRO summarizes al-Qaeda activity in Spain - which centers around Imad Eddin Barakat Yarkas, also known as Abu Dahdah. He was a top al-Qaeda figure in Europe and was arrested in November 2001. But his cell continues to operate. Moroccan authorities suspect it in the May 2003 Casablanca bombings and one of the individuals arrested by Spanish authorities in connection to the 3/11 investigation was linked to Barakat Yarkas.

As for the fallout, first the good news: Spain's Basque citizens showed their loyalty towards Spain in mass demonstrations against violence. Without popular support, ETA's terror war is petering out.

The bad news is the political fallout in Spain. The bombings were the likely cause of the upset defeat of Spain's Conservative Party. Politics aside, for al-Qaeda to take credit for changing an election is empowering for them and will only encourage their tactics. That the Socialist Party has promised to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq and re-orient towards Europe emphasizes this point further.

I just heard the Carnegie Endowment's Robert Kagan call this al-Qaeda's biggest success against the west in its 20 years of anti-Western terror. I think this is a fair assessment.

Besides the damage to the American position in Iraq and Europe, the fallout from Spain's change in course could hit the American efforts against terrorism elsewhere. Spain has been an influential partner in Latin America which, between domestic terrorism and narcotics trafficking, continued inflitration of Middle Eastern terrorist groups, and the crisis in Venezuela, could become a major area of concern for the United States.

Another loss is the damage to Spain's former Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar. Aznar, at 51, had served two terms as Spain's Prime Minister and had transformed Spanish politics. If he had effectively handed power to his chosen successor he would have been well-positioned for a second career as international statesman/high official with international organizations - where he would have been a useful alternative to the prevailing ideologies in those circles. (A conservative counterpoint to Mary Robinson maybe.)

It is too soon to count out someone as highly accomplished as Aznar, but the election loss is certainly a blow to his reputation. For al-Qaeda and their ilk, bringing down an enemy politically is a great victory. (The lessons from the Iran hostage crises in the late 1970s which destroyed Jimmy Carter's Presidency were not lost.) With American elections in November and the huge Islamist network in Britain - both Tony Blair and George Bush had best be wary.