Two recent, small, items in the Washington Times caught my attention this week.

First, Omar Said Sheikh, who is in prison in Pakistan for the murder of Wall St. Journal reporter Daniel Pearl was moved from a prison in Hyberadad to a prison in Rawalpindi. A high profile prisoner like this is not moved on a whim and Pakistani authorities only said the request to Pakistani legal authorities came from the highest level of the security apparatus. Speculation has been that Sheikh was moved in order to keep a closer watch on him and to interrogate him about the recent assassination attempts on Pakistan's President.

A confidential source told me that in fact Sheikh has a longstanding relationship with Pakistan's intelligence services. (When he learned he was wanted he turned himself into his handler.) This handler has a new position and wanted Sheikh close by as a channel to the Islamists. This indicates that -

1. Sheikh is still running Islamist organizations from prison.
2. Pakistani intelligence still has a certain tolerance for radical Muslim terrorists who might prove useful.
3. That Pakistan remains a deeply disturbed and unstable place.

The second tidbit is that Pakistan offered to help Nigeria with its nuclear program. Has the Pakistani nuclear bazaar really shut down? While there were financial motives behind Pakistan's nuclear transfer programs there was also a geopolitical angle. The radical Islamists felt that broader dissemination of WMD would be an effective check on U.S. power and tip the balance of power more favorably in their direction.

Nigeria, which has oil and very little else, has a growing Islamist movement (there are now regular, bloodly clashes between Muslims and Christians) and could be on the verge of becoming an Islamist state. A Nigerian nuclear program is deeply problematic.

This also re-emphasizes point 3 above. Pakistan is an increasingly problematic actor on the world stage.

In the past week there have been continuing reports, vigorously denied by the U.S. and Pakistan, that Bin Laden has been captured. The stepped up U.S.-Pakistan military activity in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region certainly raise suspicions that World Terrorist Number One is close to being brought to justice. I for one certainly hope so, and have two observations to make about it.

As big a victory as it would be, the War on Terrorism is clearly not over. As a discrete organization al-Qaeda may be on the wane. But it was successful in extending the reach and appeal of radical Islam and also of establishing a worldwide, interconnected network of terrorism. Al-Qaeda provided training, seed money, and expertise to terrorists worldwide. It may be difficult for terrorist organizations to use the internet for command and control, but it is impossible to stop them from using it to disseminate expertise. Al-Qaeda published how-to books and CDs about building explosives, conducting surveillance, and the other mechanics of terrorist operations. It appears that hundreds of bin Ladens may be arising to replace him - although this is not the result of American action - it is the end bin Laden sought.

My second observation is the timing. There has been speculation that bin Laden was captured and is being held for release at the most advantageous time for the Presidential elections. This is unlikely, although he may be held in secret for intelligence purposes. It can be very difficult to locate an individual, particularly in hostile territory. The relatively rapid capture of Saddam Hussein was probably an anomaly. NATO forces have been tracking but unable to capture Serbian war criminal Radovan Karadzic in Bosnia for several years. The most recent Congressional Research Service Report on Foreign Terrorist Groups mistakenly claims that top Hamas bombmaker Mohammed Deif was assassinated by Israel in September 2003. In fact he escaped and is still at large. Deif masterminded a series of 1996 suicide bombings in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem that killed dozens, there is little doubt Israel wants him - dead or alive. Yet, in tiny Gaza, where Israel knows the territory and has extensive intelligence assets, he has escaped numerous attempts on his life. Granted, Gaza is a warren of residences and any operation risks civilian casualties which Israel attempts to avoid. Deif was also being protected by PA leaders, particularly PA security chief Mohammed Dahlan. Nonetheless, this is indicative of how difficult it can be to capture an individual and should give some idea of the difficulties of capturing Bin Laden in the harsh terrain and unfriendly territory of northwest Pakistan.