I just published an article with National Review Online about my theory that Hezbollah was behind the October 15 attack on U.S. personnel in Gaza.

I have got another thought on Hezbollah - which is a very formidable organization. There are two key elements that make it particularly effective. First, their very close relationship with Iran guarantees funding, territory and most importantly close collaboration with Iranian intelligence. Hezbollah and Iranian intelligence have worked hand in hand - most notably in the bombings in Argentina in the early 1990s. The other key element in Hezbollah's effectiveness is their success. Their bombings drove the U.S. and the rest of the multi-national peacekeeping force out of Lebanon. Their kidnapping campaign led to the hugely embarrassing Iran Contra scandal, and finally their war with Israel led the Israelis to withdraw from southern Lebanon. This was, arguably, the biggest Arab victory in the ongoing Arab-Israeli conflict.

Hezbollah tutored al-Qaeda in blowing up building, simultaneous attacks, and agent handling. But I think Hezbollah is going to take a lesson from al-Qaeda. One of Bin Laden's talents has been taking control of local Islamist terrorist groups and making them part of al-Qaeda. The best example was in Algeria where in the late 1990s the Armed Islamic Group (GIA, remember educated Algerians are French-speakers, the group' actual name is Groupe Islamique Arme), was so brutal that some of its commanders wanted to break away. Bin Laden took advantage of this rift and helped the dissident commanders form the Salafist Group for Call and Combat (GSPC - Groupe Salafiste pour la Predication et le Combat). The GIA declined and the GSPC grew rapidly with Bin Laden's support. But most importantly, the extensive terror networks among the Algerians in Europe fell under control of al-Qaeda.

Hezbollah may be attempting a similar stratagem with the Palestinian groups. First it established warm relationships with any willing Palestinian organization, readily stepping across religious-secular and Sunni-Shiite barriers. Hezbollah has provided training and support since the late 1980s. In the al-Aqsa Intifada Hezbollah has been particularly generous - teaching the Palestinians how to destroy Israeli tanks and build lethal explosives (the bomb used in the March 2002 Passover Massacre may have used Hezbollah techniques.) Hezbollah has also been building its own cells in the West Bank, Gaza, and among the Israeli Arabs.

Now, with the local leaderships decimated and in hiding, Hezbollah has both the reputation and infrastructure to begin directing Palestinian activities on the ground in Gaza and the West Bank.

The real prize is Hamas. Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which has no social/charitable component, is dependent on Iranian funds and is already closely linked to Hezbollah. Fatah played a key role in founding Hezbollah, along with Iran and Syria. In fact, Hezbollah's top killer, Imad Mughniyah, is an alumnus of Arafat's Force 17. But Fatah is tightly under Arafat's thumb and has maintained its independence for over three decades. But Hamas, has its own extensive infrastructure, including international fundraising networks which could prove very valuable. Besides increasing Hezbollah's options against Israel, Hamas' international fundraising networks could provide components for terrorist cells around the world. This, combined with Hezbollah's already formidable reach and honed by Iranian intelligence would present a very serious, world-wide terrorist threat.